In this recession, jobs have become nearly as scarce as hairs on the top of Ben Bernanke’s head. Investors Thursday will digest another data point that will show if the employment picture is improving: the weekly jobless claims report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the monthly unemployment rate grabs the most headlines, the weekly numbers give a more current look at how many jobs were lost the previous week. And that of course, holds clues about the strength of the overall economy and the direction of the markets. “It’s very timely, and that’s why it’s so important,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief economist with LPL Financial.

For the jobless claims announcement to move the markets, the number has to fall outside the range of economists’ predictions, Kleintop says. Last week, 514,000 people filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. This week, the consensus of economists polled by financial data firm Bloomberg says the number will stay about the same. But predictions range from 500,000 to 540,000, so an announcement outside of that will really catch investors’ attention. Stocks would rally on lower numbers, since fewer jobs lost would signal a strengthening economy and, ultimately, more money in consumers’ pockets. Bonds tend to like bad news — when spooked investors rush to the safety of Treasury bonds, it pushes their prices up and yields down. But bonds have had staged such a rally this year that it’s hard to predict if they’ll react in typical fashion to a weaker-than-expected jobs announcement, says Tom Higgins, chief economist for Payden & Rygel, an investment management firm.

Even if they don’t move the markets, the weekly jobless numbers still hold important information for investors. Is the rate of job losses increasing or decreasing? Weekly jobless claims peaked at 674,000 in March, and they haven’t broken 500,000 since then. Continuing losses of about 10,000 a week would indicate a sustainable recovery, Kleintop says. One important factor that the numbers don’t show is whether companies have begun hiring. Typically, companies wait a while after they’ve completed layoffs before they start adding jobs. In prior downturns, hiring has typically picked up once the number of weekly jobless claims drops to 350,000, Higgins says.

A brighter employment outlook will bolster the confidence of even those workers who have jobs. Many employed consumers have cut their spending in the downturn since they feel less secure about their jobs. Economists may look at the employment trends for the big picture, Kleintop notes, but “the only labor market that really matters to most people is their own job.”